Tuesday, 15 November 2011

ReportsnReports | Power Electronics for Hybrid & Electric Vehicles: Volume 1 – Active Components


A +$2 BILLION MARKET FOR MODULES: A BIG OPPORTUNITY FOR POWER ELECTRONICS
In 2016, almost 25 million cars manufactured will be electrified, the majority of them being micro-HEV, with a low level of electrification. However, some 5 million will be full HEV, plug-in HEV or EV.
As a consequence, electric vehicles (EV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) will represent the biggest accessible market for power device and system makers. Without getting completely mature, the EV/HEV industry has seen its first steps toward standardization. Electrical configuration shows a preference for parallel and split structures. Following the same logic, DC/DC boost converters and DC/AC inverters architecture for full HEV and EV are adopted. Getting the best switch at the lowest cost is a must. IGBT will continue having a bright future in hybrid and electric cars.

We expect the power module market to be near $5 Billion, most made with IGBT. It is huge and will change the game in power electronics market!
But there are still some uncertainties:
  • What about new power semiconductor device adoption?
  • Which materials will be preferred?
  • What are the consequences on the rest of the powertrain? Cooling? Integration? Connectivity? Passives?
  • What are the consequences on the supply chain?
ELECTRICAL ARCHITECTURES ARE CHOSEN BUT SUPPLY CHAIN KEEPS ON CHANGING
The powertrain supply chain is being absorbed by car makers on one side and power device module makers on the other, leaving few free space to tier one suppliers. The supply-chain is literally changing. With EV/HEV, the traction’s main part becomes the inverter and the motor. We will experience great improvements with innovative switches, inverter designs and topology, regenerative braking etc…
Car manufacturers need to keep that added value, and thus they already started covering the value-chain starting from the semiconductor die. Toyota is even deeper in the supply chain with silicon wafer production capability. GM is closer to Delphi, and they still have manufacturing available at Kokomo (US). And we can’t forget the Chinese companies. BYD is now producing IGBTs, and many Chinese semiconductor foundries are now able to do the same.
CHINA: MARKET OPPORTUNITY OR COMPETITIVE THREAT?
China will soon have enough experience to enter foreign markets. The companies in an uncertain position are the European ones: Volkswagen, PSA or Daimler do not have such advantages, and may play with their tier-ones (Valeo, Continental, etc…).
This is also an opportunity for new players. Tesla and Coda are one of those who can come and play with the big ones.
In addition, Chinese companies, supported by the Chinese government already benefit from big car brands and electrified transportation platform to first protect the local market from Occidental and Japanese ones and then expand abroad.
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS: ACTIVE, PASSIVES AND SYSTEM INTEGRATION
Technology wise, we see a common interest from car manufacturers in active and passive devices since there is a global need for integration. Moreover, decisions on the former will have consequences on the latter.
In addition, passive device manufacturers are beginning to understand the overall consequences of semiconductor improvement on their business .
The challenges are related yet very different. Therefore, this report is structured as follows:
A newly-organized full market overview section.
Volume 1 details active devices: IGBTs, Super Junction MOSFETs, SiC and GaN-based devices, from the system down to the wafers
NEW MATERIALS FOR ACTIVE COMPONENTS ARE ENVISIONED AND WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACT PACKAGING & COOLING SYSTEMS
SiC will be part of the game, but not for today. It will bring high efficiency at even higher cost! We expect to reach XXM$ market, a drop in the bucket but a huge potential (39% CAGR 15-20). GaN will struggle at lower power, being the high-end part of micro and mild hybrid. The technology will face advanced Silicon devices such as super junction MOSFETs. However, the future of compound semiconductor in power electronics depends on new developments, and a sudden breakthrough can easily make any existing roadmap obsolete.
Another point of interest observed in all power electronics domains concerns packaging and module assembly. It is even more important for EV/HEV. Indeed, EV/HEV makers will gain market shares thanks to proprietary innovations, and IP, applicable to a full range of cars.
Toyota started field testing flip-chip modules with double sided cooling in 2008 but in 2010 they went back to classical assembly (DBC one side cooling) and small touch of improvements (Al ribbon bonding and direct cooling). All other players are working hard: Delphi with its Viper module and Mitsubishi developing IPMs.
There will be amazing things done in power module packaging for EV/HEV in the next 10 years, it is only a beginning. We expect efforts to develop and release technologies that will quickly and readily transfer to and between other energy conversion markets (PV, Wind, etc..).
COMPANY CITED IN THE REPORT
ABB, AEG, Amphenol, Audi, AVX, Batscap, Beigi Foton Motor, BMW, Bosch, BYD, Changan Automobile, Chery Automobile, Chrysler, Citroen, Coda, Continental, Cornell Dubilier, CREE, Danfoss, Delphi, Denso, Dongfeng Motors, Eaco, Eldre, Electronic Concepts, Epcos, Faw, FCI, Ford, Fuji Electric, Geely International, GM, Great Wall Motors, Honda, Huanghai Automobile, Hyundai, Idealec, Infineon, International Rectifier, JCI Saft, Kemet, LG Chemical, Magna, Magnetti, Maxwell, Mercedes, Methode, Mitsubishi Electric, NEC, Nichicon, Nissan, Panasonic, Peugeot, Powdec, Renault, Rogers, Rubycon, SAIC, Samwha, Sanyo Electric, Seika Electronic Co. Ltd, Semikron, Semisouth, Shizuki, Taiyo Yuden, TE Connectivity, Tianjin Qingyuan Electric Vehicle, Toshiba, Toyota, Transphorm, Tyco Electronics, Valeo, VolksWagen, Volvo, Wanxiang Electric Vehicle, Wima, Yazaki, Zotye Automobile…
BENEFITS
WHO SHOULD BUY THIS REPORT?
  • Car manufacturers and tier-one
  • Understand the supply-chain evolution and the technologies coming
  • Make the right partnerships with the right companies, and gain a strategic advantage
  • Understand your new market and plan your business expansion
  • Power electronics players: material, equipment, device and module market players
  • Get the full picture and benchmark competitors and partners technical solutions
  • Understand the value-chain and its evolutions
  • Take the right decisions and position yourself in tough market
BIO OF THE AUTHORS
Brice Le Gouic is in charge of power electronics and related applicative markets activity at Yole Devéloppement. He was granted a Master of Science degree in semiconductor physics & microelectronics from the National Institute of Applied Sciences in Toulouse, France.
Alexandre AVRON is a full time analyst in power electronics at Yole Devéloppement. He was granted a Master degree in Electrical engineering, with a major in power electronics and microelectronics processes, from Applied Sciences National Institute (INSA) of Lyon, France.
ABOUT YOLE DEVÉLOPPEMENT
Beginning in 1998 with Yole Devéloppement, we have grown to become a group of companies providing market research, technology analysis, strategy consulting, media in addition to fi nance services. With a solid focus on emerging applications using silicon and/or micro manufacturing Yole Devéloppement group has expanded to include more than 40 associates worldwide covering MEMS, Microfluidics & Medical, Advanced Packaging, Compound Semiconductors, Power Electronics, LE D, and Photovoltaic.
Table of Contents
BEFORE WE START…
Glossary
Methodology and tools
Top-down approach Executive summary
What has changed in the 2011 edition?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EV HEV MARKET
Worldwide car market
HEV market
EV and plug-in HEV
Focus on Chinese market
Main Chinese players
Chinese market forecasts
ARCHITECTURES AND POWER SYSTEMS
HEV architectures and power control units
Assembly and design
Supply chain
Power electronics uses in HEV/EV
Start/stop (belt Alternator system BAS)
DC/DC converter
DC/AC inverter
Plug in charger
Power electronics challenges and industrial supply chain
Market players, latest developments, tier one automotive suppliers
VOLUME 1: ACTIVE COMPONENTS
Semiconductors module packaging
SiC & GaN trends in EV/HEV
Silicon, SiC & GaN device and module recent developments
SiC and GaN developments
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX
Market players, latest developments: automotive tier one suppliers
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