Monday 17 October 2011

ReportsnReports | The Future of Life: Forecast Highlights 2011



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The UK life industry needs to consider the factors that will impact the market and the changes that need to be made if it is to thrive and remain relevant to consumers.
Features and benefits
  • Access Datamonitor’s complete forecasts for individual products within the protection and investment bond markets.
  • Plan your distribution strategy effectively by knowing which channel is forecasted to proliferate in the next five years.
Highlights
The total life market will witness a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% between 2011 and 2015. Even in the challenging face of uncertain macroeconomic conditions, the protection and investment bond markets are forecasted to grow by 3.5% and 2.1% respectively over the next five years.
Term assurance will continue its dominance within the overall protection market, but whole-of-life and long-term care products will be the greatest areas of growth for the life industry, with forecast CAGRs of 12.2% and 11.0% respectively.
For the investment bond market, the “guaranteed” sector is anticipated to grow over the next five years. This growth will be driven by a new entrant to the market, and investors’ continuing wariness of equities will keep the product in demand.
Table Of Contents
Catalyst
Summary
ANALYSIS

The life market will witness a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% over the next five years
Datamonitor forecasts the protection market to be secure over the next five years
The investment bond market will record a CAGR of 2.1% over the next five years
There are key factors impacting the future success of the life market
Macroeconomic variables will impact new business for both protection and investments
The Retail Distribution Review will be a driver for both protection and investment bond business
Capital and solvency requirements will favor scale in providers
Consumer attitudes and behaviors will affect demand for life products going forward
The continuation of poor investment performance is the most challenging issue facing the investment bond market
Protection: going forward, the market will shift the emphasis away from mortgage-related business
Term assurance will continue to hold a near 70% share of the total protection market
Income protection will remain a small player within the overall protection market
Standalone critical illness insurance will continue to be a niche offering, but rider sales will see healthy growth
Whole-of-life will be increasingly popular among high net worth individuals for its inheritance tax planning benefits
Long-term care will be seen as an invaluable product in the future by consumers and advisors
The distribution of protection products will continue to occur predominantly through IFAs
Key takeouts
Investments: there is still life for investment bonds, as there are clear circumstances where it is an advantageous investment
Investors will continue to question the role of unit-linked bonds in the future, as they lack elements of protection against market volatility
Money market bonds will continue to be seen as the refuge of choice during ongoing economic uncertainty
Guaranteed bonds will see a sharp increase in new business premiums in 2011 due to a new entrant
A with-profits revival will not come to fruition, and instead there will be renewed interest in distribution bonds
Financial advisors will continue to dominate the distribution of investment products in the UK
Key takeouts
APPENDIX
Definitions
Annual premium life
Critical illness
Collective life
Department for Work and Pensions rebate
Distribution bonds
Employer-sponsored stakeholder pension
Endowment policy
Free-standing additional voluntary contributions
Group personal pensions
Guaranteed equity bonds
Guaranteed income and growth bonds
Income protection
ISAs
Life assurance
Life-based savings products
Other bonds
Personal pensions
Purchased life annuities
Self-invested personal pensions
Single premium life
Stakeholder pensions
Term assurance
Unit-linked bond
Whole-of-life insurance
With-profits bond
ABI definitions of distribution channels
Independent financial advisors
Direct sales forces
Tied agents
Multi-tied agents
Bancassurance
Direct marketing
Telesales
Other
Further reading
Ask the analyst
Disclaimer
LIST OF TABLES
Table: Forecast protection and investment bond new business premiums (£m APE), 2011–15
Table: Forecast protection new business premiums (£m APE), 2011–15
Table: Forecast new business premiums for investment bonds (£m APE), 2011–15
Table: Forecasts of UK macroeconomic variables, 2011–15
Table: Forecast new business for the protection market, by distribution channel (£m APE), 2011–15
Table: Forecast investment bonds new business segmented by distribution channel (£m APE), 2011–15
LIST OF  FIGURES
Figure: The life market will grow by a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% over five years
Figure: Term assurance will continue to underpin the overall protection market
Figure: The investment bond market will grow by 2.1% over the next five years
Figure: The highest erosion of in new business premium collection will be seen in the non-advised channel
Figure: Going forward, investment bonds will still predominantly be distributed by IFAs
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